Afterwards chairperson Liebman discussed investing-related excerpts from professor Leonard Mlodinow book The Drunkard's Walk [Pantheon Books, 2008] which argues that many life events are consistent with random causes. We explored whether "star" mutual fund managers like Bill Miller deserve our allegiance? Whether experts really pick winning stocks? Whether new management can jumpstart a company?

As a prelude to this discussion, the attending [albeit small crowd!] came to the following "wise crowd" conclusions: (1) Home sales won't rebound for 16 months [June 2009]; (2) There's a 28% chance that a major US money center bank will go bankrupt or require a bailout in the coming year; (3) The DJIA will end 2008 at 14,100 [about an 8% gain from its value on this meeting date and a 6% gain from its 2008 beginning value]; (4) At least 75% of US troops will be withdrawn from Iraq no sooner than 2011; (5) A Palestinian state won't be recognized by the UN until 2015; (6) Oil will no longer be significantly used as a fuel no sooner than 2035. (7) The first complete pharmaceutical or "painless procedure" cure for some common type of cancer will be available in 2016. 

For the coming year, people chose some downtrodden financial stocks. Others looked to defensive drug, food and beverage entities. A third group just went with their best analytics choice.

Do-it-yourself investing has become the common retirement plan for America's workers as "defined benefit" programs have been replaced by "defined contribution" regimes. This "Little Red Hen" concept had many people making serious mistakes in managing retirement investments. We reviewed changes to this situation brought about by the 2006 Retirement Pension Protection Act which mandated automatic enrollment and a diversified default investment for people who don't make an initial product selection. Two new product genres for creating a stream of income payments during retirement were described: Immediate annuities with guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefits, and target payment mutual funds [coming to market in late 2007].

July 24, 2007

Among the problems the group found with each particular company were : very high price-to-earnings ratio; recent large price run-up or large price collapse; multi-year history of weak performance & lost opportunity; "glitzy" part of the business is very small; very low margin or no profits at all. 

June 26, 2007

May 22, 2007

In 1990, the Japanese Nikkei 225 Index hit an all-time peak near 39,000, plunged to 20,000 one year later, drifted toward 9,000 over the next twelve years, and started a rally in 2003. From Japan's stratospheric economic growth rate of 10% in the 1960s, its economy slowed to 4% in the 1980s, and then to an anemic 1.5% in the 1990s. Now some observers think Japanese stocks are undervalued, especially the less well-known companies. Individual North Shore group members identified the following Japan purchase candidates: Fuji Film [Ticker: FUJI], Mistui [MITSY], Mitsubishi Heavy Industries [MHVYF], Millea Holdings [MLEA], Kyocera [KYO], and two exchange-traded iShares Japan index funds [EWJ and ITF].

April 24, 2007

March 27, 2007

Among the 2007 early winners identified by individual group members were: oil exploration and transporter Questar Corp. [Ticker: STR, up 14%]; back-office outsourcer Affiliated Computer Services [ACS, up 20%]; silicon wafer maker MEMC Electronic Materials [WFR, up 51%]; Apple Computer [AAPL, up 11%]; Google [GOOG, down -1% but gains made selling put options]; New England refined oil products seller Global Partners LP [GLP, up 42%]; emergency vehicle and custom truck chassis manufacturer Spartan Motors [SPAR, up 52%]; utility conglomerate Florida Power & Light [FPL, up 11%]; computer info protector VASCO Data Security International [VDSI, up 53%]; and close-out mass merchandise retailer BigLots [BIG, up 39%].

February 27, 2007

January 23, 2007

For the coming year, group members picked some perennials like Cisco and GE; added a few "growth" medical and biotechnology situations such as Biopharma and MonoGen; and worked plays on the hot 2006 energy and China market sectors. 

October 24, 2006

The Group examined the two largest commitments of six mutual fund managers who have above-average, long-term total-return records. The star managers included Bill Miller of the Legg Mason organization; Chris Davis of Davis New York; and Dick Weiss of Wells Fargo. The twelve stocks identified by these managers will be tracked for the next eighteen months.

September 26, 2006

Other group members suggested the following sites:  www.StockCharts.com for "candlestick" charts [free]; www.QuantumOnline.com for preferred stocks and ETF information [free- registration required]; www.StockDiagnostics.com for cash flow computations [$$ subscription required]; www.ValuEngine.com for stock selection/evaluation [$$ subscription required]; and www.InvestingInBonds.com which has near-real-time trading histories for specific bonds and yield tables for the municipal, corporate and government bond markets.

August 22, 2006

July 25, 2006

Individual members discovered and discussed companies that have a great new product possibility... most of the choices were in the energy and networking sectors. The nominees included: automobile efficiency hydrogen booster Hy-Drive [ HGS]; "Biofuels" transforming agricultural byproducts into energy... Archer Daniels Midland [ADM] is doing this with corn; novel network computing allowing "WiMax" whole-city wireless from Cisco Systems [CSCO]; embedded GPS navigation systems from Garmin [GRMN]. In the retail sector, UnderArmor [UARM] has unique performance athletic clothing products. Finally, RC2 [RCRC] is a diversified toy maker whose new "Fear Factor Game" defies players to eat eyeballs, rats, worms and bugs [made of candy]. 

June 27, 2006

May 23, 2006

We've seen the power of overseas markets, from Europe to Latin America to the Pacific Ring, the past several years. Growth rates of foreign economies have often been great, not the least because the commodity products that some of these countries sell are in heavy demand. NorthShore group members sifted through the S&P 700 Foreign Stocks and picked the following companies they felt had strong prospects: Thyssen-Krupp [Ticker: TYEKF], American Movil [AMX], Toyota [TM], StatOil [STO], Mittel Steel [MT], BASF [BF], Honda Motors [HMC], Canadian National Railway [CNI] and Tenaris SA [TS].

John Martin discussed four of his favorite investment newsletters, giving the NorthShore group insights about what made each of them valuable to his investment approach and how they complimented one another. His choices included John Dessauer's Investors World [Long term value emphasis]; Investech Research [Useful for citing moves of the entire market]; Wall Street Digest [More Aggressive portfolio]; and Richard Band's Profitable Investing [More conservative, looks for high total return]. 

March 28, 2006

NorthShore subgroup members recommended securities that could claim to be "first" in some relevant business or investing parameter. We heard about: International Paper [Ticker: IP] that's first in paper products; Johnson & Johnson [JNJ] first to bring sterile packaged bandages to market; Zimmer Holdings [ZMH] first to sell one million artificial joints; Select Comfort [SCSS] that innovated the "sleep number bed"; Stryker [SYK] that's the world leader in the orthopedic replacement market and operating room equipment; Boeing [BA] the first company with a successful jetliner; PetMed Express [PETS] providing drugs for dogs [and cats etc]; Motorola [MOT] the #1 phone maker in the world (again); Empire Resources [ERS] a reseller of aluminum components; and Wrigley [WWY] the chewing gum king.

February 28, 2006

January 24, 2006

For the coming year, group members picked an unusually eclectic stock mix... Momentum players picked last year's winners; but Contrarians touted last year's losers! Speculators found obscure small companies trading OTC; while Investors bet on the bluest chips from the NYSE.

November 22, 2005

October 25, 2005

September 26, 2005

We used the Chicago Tribune's weekly table "How the Regions Top 50 Companies Fared"  to identify smaller companies [less than $10 billion market cap] in our Chicago region that might have good investment potential. Individual members of the group presented these buy candidates: Dade Behring [ ticker DADE], a maker of medical diagnostic products; Nuveen Investments [JNC], municipal bond fund seller now branching to equities; USG Corporation [USG], maker of gypsum wallboard with innovative properties; Allscripts Healthcare Solutions [MDRX], medical software and information control services; Stericycle [SRCL], medical waste collector, disposer and recycler; and Zebra Technology [ZBRA], distributor of bar code and radio ID tag printers, plus tagging supplies for controlling inventory, theft and access.

August 23, 2005

Other parts of his book tackle such questions as... How should a lump sum be invested? When should you re-balance your allocation? What should you do with a concentrated stock position? When should you sell shares that have a very low cost basis? and What role should international assets have in your portfolio? Swedroe's credentials include an MBA from New York University, executive jobs at Citicorp and Prudential and, since 1996, partnership in an asset management firm in St. Louis.

July 26, 2005

June 28, 2005

As with all investing advice, accept these Subgroup recommendations at your own risk.

May 24, 2005

The roots of Israel's founding in socialist ideals were examined, leading to the 1983 economic implosion. After that year, Israel opened its economy to foreign capital flows; relinquished many government controls on capital formation; created a central bank; eliminated "high employment" programs; and negotiated free trade pacts with much of Europe, Asia, and the Americas. These actions allowed inflation to be dramatically reduced and unleashed the Israeli economy to grow.  The Israeli stock market is characterized by two segments: (1) large companies [often former government monopolies] like the airline El Al, Bank Hapoalim, Koor Industries, and the communications giant Bezeq; and (2) hundreds of small technology companies. A few of the latter have flourished such as Check Point Software. Teva Pharmaceutical in particular has made a name for itself. Three U.S.-based funds invest only in Israeli stocks [Tickers: ISL, AMDEX, BWFAX]... they have very small asset bases, high expense ratios, and concentrated portfolios.

April 26. 2005

Good stories were told by our members about their first forays into the investing world. Some people hit a home run on that first pitch... buying Pepsico or Microsoft. Others learned early how a "can't miss" stock... can miss. There were tales of safe bond purchases and risks taken in companies creating totally new products. When all the telling was done and the dead-end ideas tucked away, we could add thirteen "first investment" names to our NorthShore Watchlist.

March 22, 2005

Members brought in "recommended stock lists" from newsletters, brokerage houses, newspapers and magazines. The group heard the origin and content of each "Top Ten" list and scored the repeat candidates to create the First "NorthShore SubGroup Top Ten Composite"... which included, by frequency of occurrence: Citicorp [Ticker: C], Johnson & Johnson [JNJ], ConocoPhillips [COP], Exxon Mobil [XOM], Pfizer [PFE], General Electric [GE], Home Depot [HD], Occidental Petroleum [OXY], Intel [INTC] and Wells Fargo [WFC]. These are all huge companies... seven of them are in the DJ Industrial Average, and five are among the ten largest holdings in the capitalization-weighted S&P 500 Index. 

February 22, 2005

The proliferation of Exchange-Traded Funds ["ETFs"] was described with an article by Chicago Tribune columnist Bill Barnhart, and with Barclay information on their "iShares" ETF product line [$55 Billion new money in 2004]. We also noted upcoming changes in the "weighting" computation of the S&P 500 Index and heard a presentation of "Alan's Little Fund Reform List" ... what's needed for real industry housecleaning.

January 25, 2005

For the year ahead, group members were partial to foreign stocks from Europe and South America, turnaround companies, players associated with the homebuilding boom, as well as some defense and energy stocks. 

We gave attention to five lesser-known software companies: Jack Henry & Associates [ Ticker: JKHY ] and Fiserv [ FISV ] both doing banking and transaction processing software; Affiliated Computer Services [ACS ] outsourcing government information systems; Macromedia [ MACR ] providing multimedia presentation tools for the Internet; and one "young adult" company, Computer Sciences Corporation [ CSC ]. The resident "analysts" at the meeting gave their highest ranking to ACS and CSC in a tie; JKHY was seen as least likely to succeed.

October 26, 2004

The Driehaus firm offers two mutual funds employing his methods: Driehaus International Discovery Fund [Ticker: DRIDX] and Driehaus Emerging Markets Growth Fund [DREGX].

September 28, 2004

The group examined the many ways that separate classes of investment assets can be defined. We reviewed the historical average returns, volatility, and cross-correlations of asset classes and discussed how these factors help investors properly diversify. Data tables published last year in the book "Art of Asset Allocation" by Morgan Stanley's Chief Investment Officer David Darst were good source materials.  

August 24, 2004

Foreign equity products available as ADRs or funds recommended by individual group members were: Canon [Ticker: CAJ], Willis Holdings [WSH], Matthews Asian Growth & Income Fund [MACSX], Teva Pharmaceuticals [TEVA], iShares South Africa [EZA], Telefonica SA [TEF], Nokia [NOK], Shire Pharmaceuticals [SHPGY], Swiss Helvetica Fund [SWZ], Toyota [TM], British Petroleum [BP], Southern Peru Copper [PCU], E.ON [AG], and Synthes Stratec [SNHT].  

July 27, 2004

For the flavor of Bernstein's thinking and writing style, check www.EfficientFrontier.com. On the home page, check out the "Efficient Frontier" Journal Archive [6th major link down]; the "Online Asset Allocator" [7th link down]; and the Reading List [8th link down]. 

June 22, 2004

This month the North Shore Sub-group reviewed five companies that have a strong presence in the beauty industry to see if their prospects were more than skin deep.  Our players were: Alberto Culver [Ticker: ACV]; Avon Products [AVP], Estee Lauder [EL]; Gillette [G]; and Helen of Troy [HELE]. We also tested a new format for the roundtable discussion... basing our discussion on attendee answers to a 10-question screen. The new format took more time than usual to work through so only three companies were discussed and rated. Alberto-Culver was highest rated [1.8 rating on a 1-to-3 scale (1 = Best)] because people liked the consistent growth in its financials. Avon Products got a middling 2.0 rating since it too has been steady on its feet. A higher P/E ratio and perceived "high" stock price were negatives. Finally, Helen of Troy was rated a weaker 2.5, mainly because its beauty apparatus and appliances business was more mundane and profit margins were flat.

May 25, 2004

The group reviewed several articles discussing how stock analysts do their job; how they earn their keep; conflicts of interest between analyst remuneration and impartiality; and the value of analyst conclusions. [Click here for the key article by asset manager Brian Bruce in The Journal of Psychology and Financial Markets.] We also reviewed notes of the AAII-Chicago lectures of Mitch Zacks [May 2004] and Professor Werner DeBondt [February 2004] that show the very limited utility of analyst stock price predictions and a close agreement between the statistics of correct analyst predictions of long term growth and those predicted by pure luck. A variety of analyst predictions for Intel Corporation [Ticker: INTC ] to focus our attention on the range of analyst predictions at any time point.

April 27, 2004

March 23, 2004

The group focused its attention on public companies that have survived at least 20 years and that remain interesting purchase candidates today. We learned that companies go through complex transitions of growth, decline, acquisition, and divestiture to survive. The "older and still wise" organizations cited by individual group members included: financial supermarket Citigroup [Ticker:C]; therapeutic argonauts Amgen [AMGN] and Genentech [DNA]; Johnson & Johnson [JNJ] which began with a sterile surgical plaster product in 1890; Medtronic [MDT] finding palliatives for chronic illness during fifty years; Nucor [NUE] which manufactured cars and trucks at the dawn of the 20th century but operated steel mini-mills at century's close; banker Wells Fargo [WFC]; hardware and homeware store operator Lowe's [LOW]; and the universal consumer marketer, Wal-Mart [WMT]. 

February 24, 2004

The School of Hard Knocks was in reunion at our February meeting. We heard great lessons from many individual members who learned such virtues as... regular saving; fact checking; patience; contrarian action; avoiding big disasters; reinvesting dividends; relying on one's own judgment; long-term holding; and never neglecting the portfolio that feeds you.

January 27, 2004

For the year ahead, group members picked many adventurous, smaller, technology companies... expecting the euphoria of 2003 to continue. Banks and social trend companies [health foods, e.g.] were also popular.

November 25, 2003

Five panels of North Shore gurus came to these conclusions: Bemis - "Very Weak Buy" rating on a "safe" company. Con Ed - Don't Buy, overvalued. DuPont - Don't Buy, company has lost its focus, may have pension liability. Genuine Parts - Don't Buy, although good balance sheet and increased dividends for 40 years. Sara Lee -  Don't Buy. Dull prospects despite high dividend. So, Value Line's pessimism was seconded by North Shore gurus for these stocks. Time will tell.

October 28, 2003

The group reviewed this book including these ideas: how statistics ignorance bedevils investors; the important role of compound interest and its relation to "fundamental analysis"; how to spot accounting fraud using Bernard's Law of small numbers; decision-making paradoxes that lead to herd behavior; the possible relationship of market price behavior with "chaos" theory, unstable non-linear system response, and "complexity" theory. 

September 23, 2003

August 26, 2003

This has been a boom time for slot machine makers International Game Technology [IGT] and WMS Industries [WMS]; and for betting system / lotto terminal seller GTECH Holdings [GTK]. But some of their customers, such as Las Vegas destination hotel groups MGM Mirage [MGG] and Mandalay Resort Group [MBG], have been challenged by the effects of terrorism on the travel industry. The keen analysts of the North Shore, working in study groups, reviewed these five companies... they liked what GTECH Holdings and International Game Tech were doing, but voted them "not buys" because of the large price gains they've experienced. MGM Mirage and WMS Industries were judged "not buys" because of weak earnings experiences and prospects. Mandalay Resort was seen as having better operations but a high price, so it also did not rise above a "not buy" diagnosis. A few individual attendees expressed the contrarian view that the North Shore participants were being too narrow-minded about the profit potential of these companies and too pessimistic about the future in general. 

July 22, 2003

Many investment industry brokers, magazines, newsletters and advisors tout some "system" for picking winning stocks or equity funds. But market research shows most investors never see the claimed rewards. We examined this disconnect between hype and reality by looking at a large number of examples. Sometimes the problem is contrived advertising... including number or chart manipulation; selective memory; apples-to-kumquats comparisons; partial disclosure; or special date selection. Another major factor in stock picking failure is the large number of psychological tricks investors play on themselves! [Re-read the excellent book Why Smart People Make Big Money Mistakes that we presciently studied at the stock market peak in February 2000 (click date to read that meeting's summary)]. 

June 24, 2003

"Sell" ideas were in shorter supply [Where have all those pessimists gone?] but included... Seitel [SEIE] not doing well in its energy-related businesses; AT&T [T] struggling to find its core as it sheds businesses it grew or bought. 

May 27, 2003

AAII for its StockInvestor software, "investor celebrity" stock screening criteria palettes, and general investment advice.

April 22, 2003

Speakers Jeff Joseph and Kristin Fox from  www.Hedgeworld.Com  and Gary Stephans and Amanda Cain of SalomonSmithBarney gave us an introduction to the modern panorama of hedge funds, and an update on the latest trends toward "multi-fund" products and low-initial-investment [$50,000] offerings. They said some hedge funds intend to be dependable total return vehicles [e.g., using arbitrage strategies]; while others are "home run" seekers [e.g., currency speculators]. The speakers stressed it was very important to study the reputations and histories of hedge fund managers. Hedge funds often have no third-party custodians; no outside auditors or Directors; minimal required disclosures of return or portfolio content; and restricted withdrawal rights.

March 25, 2003

The group examined two classes of high dividend yield securities... utility operating companies and royalty trusts. In specific, we reviewed Exelon Corp [Ticker: EXC], Great Plains Energy [GXP], TECO Energy [TE], Great Northern Iron [GNI], and Hugoton Royalty Trust [HGT]. The annual dividend yields in this group ranged from 4% to 13%. Our North Shore "analysts" were nervous about TECO, bored with Exelon, and lacked evidence on Great Northern Iron. Great Plains won an unenthusiastic "OK" while Hugoton Royalty [with $80 million in revenues and just one employee!] piqued the most curiosity.

February 25, 2003

Charles D. Ellis -- a long-experienced portfolio manager and consultant -- tries to explain in this book [title in header above] why amateur investors have little hope of beating the pro's. Indeed, he says, virtually none of the pro's can beat each other! For individual investors, he argues, the best way forward from this stand-off is to give up the idea of "beating the market" in favor of "matching the market" with index fund usage. Rather than pick stocks, Ellis argues, better spend your time developing your portfolio operating policy, steeling yourself for long-term commitment through market gyrations, and making sure you've got adequate defense against inflation.

January 28, 2003

The awards for "Best Pick of 2002" went to the people recommending: education company Apollo Group [up 44%]; clothier Chico's FAS [up 38%]; and pharmacy retailer Rite-Aid [up 34%]. The entire 2002 North Shore "Best Ideas" portfolio list had a -15% loss, which was much better than the -24% drop in the S&P 500 Index during the same time period as our contest.

November 27, 2002

To get a grounding in stock option terminology and concepts, visit the free Chicago Board Options Exchange's site Online Options Institute. 

North Shore member study groups reviewed the data on each of these stocks and concluded that FO, WMK, HRB, XRAY, BUD and PG were "buys" while ITT, NFB, PDCO and SYY were "holds." There was difficulty determining the "fair price" [what an informed, experienced investor should be willing to pay now] of the stocks with the data available.

September 24, 2002

Group members gave summaries of their personal investment "game plan". Quite a few variations to traditional "buy and hold" or "trading" techniques were described. Some interesting tools used by one or more group members: selling put options; using high debt allocation; selling covered call options, "up months only" (Nov to Apr) equity investing; options-dictated equity trading; using "short-selling" and leveraged index funds; IBD's 8% stock selling rule applied to "cost" or "current price"; contrarian equity stance (buy what's being sold, sell what's being bought); day trading with "limit order straddles".

July  23, 2002

North Shore sub-group founder and co-leader Herb Paske enlivened this discussion with several questionnaires he uses with his clients to assess their risk tolerance and investment knowledge. Some key points Herb made: Social Security typically covers only 20% of retirement expenses; today's retiree typically has a 30-year life expectancy so inflation risk must be countered; a 3% maximum annual draw from retirement assets will generally ensure a retiree doesn't outlive his/her assets; the recommended order of withdrawal for most people is to use personal money first, then retirement account money.

June 23, 2002

We divided ourselves into small "study groups", each of which looked at one of the the large pharmaceutical companies: Merck [MRK], Pfizer [PFE], Wyeth [WYE] [the former American Home Products], Lilly [LLY], Glaxo SmithKline [GSK], Johson & Johnson [JNJ], Abbott Labs [ABT], Bristol-Meyers Squibb [BMY], Novartis [NVS] and Pharmacia [PHA]. These stocks were recently selling at 10% to 50% of their 52-week high prices. Among the industry challenges mentioned were patent expirations, competitor and consumer lawsuits, generic competition, low earnings, slow FDA new drug approvals, and potential government involvement in drug distribution [Medicare drug benefits?]. The study groups thought Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer, and Pharmacia could be bought now; other companies weren't attractive at current conditions.

May 28, 2002

Four defense contractors, General Dynamics [GD], Lockheed-Martin [LMT], Northrop Grumman [NOC], and United Technologies [UTX] were reviewed for investment merit. People liked the financial strength of General Dynamics but wondered if submarine orders were stymied. Lockheed, it was feared by some, had already "made its move". Northrop Grumman was faulted for erratic earnings, as well as low earnings levels and profit growth. United Technologies was the diversified business and had a relatively low price/earnings ratio. In a straw poll at the end of our discussion, about one-third of attendees were "willing to buy" General Dynamics and United Technologies "the next morning"; almost no one had buying interest in Northrop or Lockheed.

April 23, 2002

The housing industry has been a mainstay during the 2000-01 Bear market. Companies providing raw materials for housing, construction, and home improvement have benefited from this trend. The group looked at four examples that were favorably ranked by Value Line... Home Depot [Ticker: HD]; Lowe's [LOW]; Hughes Supply [HUG]; and Building Materials Holding Corp [BMHC]. Lowe's and Home Depot are the most closely matched... some attendees thought LOW was attractive as a smaller, nimble, cheaper version of HD. Others said Home Depot's experimentation with stores selling luxury products ["Expo"], automobile sales, and "mini-stores" for city locations was in its favor. It was noted that Hughes had the most price momentum.  

March 26, 2002

The group reviewed the definitions of "convertible" and "preferred" securities, showing how an investor can achieve equity-like capital gains under some circumstances and bond-like steady yields otherwise. For concreteness, we studied the more liquid breed of LYONS [Omnicom 0% Convertible LYON due 2/7/2031] and PEPS [Electronic Data Systems $3.81 PEPS Convertible due 8/17/2004] securities, as well as a Preferred Stock [Public Storage Inc. 7.875% Cumulative Preferred Depository Shares, Series S]. Some prominent convertible security mutual funds were also reviewed. The difficulty of getting information about convertible securities was noted; serious investors were directed to www.convertbond.com [annual fee site with free 14-day trial] and to the paperbound "Mergent Bond Record" [formerly, Moody's Bond Record] available at some libraries.

This discussion was enlightened by Jim Kahan [ex-CPA and -auditor; presently Vice President-Investments, Smith Barney (Northbrook)] who reminded us that good auditing focuses on the "exceptional" or "critical" points of a company's accounting records. Auditors are charged with deciding the "best presentation" when competing accounting methods can be used. For large corporations, key audit team members should be rotated out regularly. In Enron's case, possible auditing errors included the lack of "arms length" partnership relations, and oversight of critical functions by Enron staff who formerly worked for auditor Anderson. Members noted that to minimize the chances of being "Enronized" in the future, investors should: (1) diversify! diversify!; (2) retain a healthy skepticism about all corporate information; and (3) recognize there's more to a "good stock" than a currently-rising share price.

January 22, 2002

Ouch! The average "Best Idea" recommendation lost 29% last year! But there were four gainers meriting 2001 Achievement Awards... trendy clothier Urban Outfitters [up 175%]; tech merchant Computer Discount Warehouse [ahead 78%]; Cohu rising 2% [makes silicon chip testing equipment and is not a type of salmon]; and midrange department store Kohl's [positive by 0.1%].

November 27, 2001

After the September attacks, President Bush said the fight against terrorism could take years. Investors have to consider that, so we looked for stocks likely to be boosted or hindered by a time of terrorism. Getting kudos were "stay-at-home entertainment" companies like Singing Machine [SMD]; device security makers such as Visionics [VSNX]; and traditional military hardware purveyors Lockheed-Martin [LMT] and General Dynamics [GD]. Likely to suffer from the new climate, at least one attendee thought, were theme park hosts like Disney [DIS], oil producers such as BP [BP], and electric utility companies . 

October 23, 2001

The operations, history and investment performance of four companies in the education business were discussed. Members were most impressed with Career Education [CECO] and DeVry [DV] for their post-secondary, skills-oriented degree programs in technology, business administration, and culinary arts. There was less enthusiasm for Apollo Group [APOL] which operates a broad program under the 'University of Phoenix' name, and for Sylvan Learning [SLVN] which has a strong interest in overseas teaching, particular of English as a second language. Some AAII observers were put off by the high P/E ratios of this group at this market juncture.

September 25, 2001

A group discussion of investor and market responses to the terrorist attacks on the United States on September 11, 2001.

August 28, 2001

Jay Lazar and Mark Wiemeler of American Express Financial Advisors presented a review of the two topics above. This included calculating "net worth", social security payments and their taxability, uses of Roth IRAs, the role of trusts, 529 college saving plans, and charitable giving.

July 24, 2001

Attendees of the 22nd Annual AAII Investor Conference this June in Chicago reviewed some major topics covered by speakers: exchange-traded funds; the semiconductor industry; investment philosophy of Don Phillips (Morningstar), Ed Finn (Barron's), and Stephen Leeb (Personal Fianance); AAII.com website resources; lessons of best-performing newsletters; and the new IRA regulations.

June 26, 2001